All elections are consequential. But the one just called will be more consequential than most. At a time of self-inflicted economic decline and social weakness, we find ourselves in a trade war with the Americans, who until now have bought 80 per cent of our exports.

Western democracies have to adjust to the new reality that Pax Americana is done. Even if the on-again, off-again tariffs are lifted, Canada has been sent an unmistakable message: we can no longer count on a predictable, mutually advantageous economic and security relationship with the U.S. That isn’t all bad news but, given the parlous state of our economy, it will be if we don’t undertake transformational change.

Our decline long pre-dates President Donald Trump’s second election. In the past 10 years, our GDP per capita rose a dismal half per cent — second last among 38 OECD countries, ahead of only Luxembourg, and far behind the U.S., where it increased 21 per cent. According to the Fraser Institute, earnings per person in our richest province are now lower than in the poorest U.S. state. Since 2015, government spending has nearly doubled in Canada, while investment has fallen by a third, helping explain our insipid productivity. Federal debt reached 70 per cent of GDP last year, with a balanced budget nowhere in sight. We have a bloated bureaucracy and annual interest obligations of $47 billion and rising. The Wall Street Journal calls it our “lost decade.”

Because of red tape, high taxes and excessive immigration, young people cannot afford homes. Groceries and rent are up 40 per cent in the past three years. More than six million adults lack access to a GP or nurse-practitioner, while wait times for specialist medical procedures are now up to 30 weeks on average. National unity is undermined by alienation in Quebec and Alberta. Violent crime is up 44 per cent since 2014. According to the RCMP, more than 2,000 criminal gangs operate in Canada. Antisemitic offences at universities and on our city streets have become a new normal.

We urgently need to address: slow growth of our resource industries, blocked internal trade, intrusive regulations, unaffordable and anti-competitive taxes, profligate spending, bloated government, limited market diversification and capital flight.

At the top of the to-do list: develop our immense natural resources, build pipelines and LNG liquefaction plants, transport fossil fuels to tidewater and sell more to overseas markets. Exploiting our rich inheritance would strengthen our independence and sovereignty, precisely what we need to counter Trump’s tariffs and 51st-state talk. It would generate economic growth and raise revenue our governments could devote to improving social programs, reducing deficits, creating jobs and attracting capital. Secure, affordable energy would address regional alienation, assist our beleaguered European allies and help Asians reduce global emissions by replacing coal with natural gas.

But to achieve these vital goals a new government needs to do what Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has requested: lift both the West Coast tanker ban and the cap on oilsands emissions, and commit to shorter deadlines for regulatory approvals, including by repealing the Impact Assessment Act.

Increasingly isolated in its climate obsession, Canada simply cannot afford exorbitant anti-growth net-zero policies. According to the federal budget, green investments could cost up to $5.2 trillion — $140 billion a year until 2050. Canadians will not accept that, especially since eliminating our 1.5 per cent of global emissions would not fix climate change.

New Liberal Leader Mark Carney is a climate alarmist through and through. He publicly opposed Northern Gateway (even as his company was buying pipelines in the Middle East). He has long pushed and never repudiated systematically restricting financing for fossil fuel projects, the energy industry and other high-emitting ventures. Over the next month of the election campaign he seems likely to promise whatever enhances his short-term political prospects. But it is very hard to imagine that, if elected, he will not return to his policy preoccupation of at least the past 15 years.

Until running for Liberal leader, Carney had favoured raising the carbon tax. But then he happily axed it, saying it had become “divisive” — even if Liberals had claimed civilization itself was at risk without it. In its place, he supports an “industrial” carbon tax and a “carbon border adjustment mechanism,” which will both be passed on to consumers though without a compensating rebate. These replacements’ sole advantage is political: the slippery sleight-of-hand may well fool a credulous public.

Carney is also now making noises about building more energy infrastructure — which caused a reporter to inquire why is he is not running for the Conservative party. In fact, the “new” Liberal party is stealing large parts of the Conservative platform, though it will surely drop them if they can finagle a fourth term.

Donald Trump has jolted Canadians out of their complacency and into an uncompromising defence of our national interests. The issue in this election is whether a newly elected government will take decisive action to transform the economy, realize Canada’s great potential and strengthen our sovereignty. Even with a different leader, the authors of our lost decade are very unlikely to be the ones to do that.

Joe Oliver was minister of natural resources and minister of finance in the Harper government.

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