Commodity Prices To Remain Lackluster, but Midstream Companies Will Do Better in 2024
Multiple names have already provided financial guidance for 2024, and most others will provide guidance during earnings season.
The midstream corporations that have provided outlooks are generally pointing to mid-single-digit EBITDA growth for 2024. A handful of companies have also provided guidance for dividend increases. Targa Resources (TRGP) at 50% growth and Plains All American (PAA/PAGP) at 19% are both outliers on the high side. For most names, dividend growth in the low-to-mid-single-digits is a more likely run rate. Importantly, companies can continue to build on positive dividend track records in 2024. The last dividend cut for AMZI and AMNA in July 2021 has become a more distant memory.
Moving beyond the company-level view, the outlook becomes more unclear. Weaker oil and natural gas prices were a headwind for broader energy in 2023. It is difficult to identify compelling upside drivers for prices in 2024. On the oil front, OPEC+, namely Saudi Arabia and Russia, appear committed to defending a floor in prices. Any demand weakness and additional supply from countries like the U.S. and Guyana can make their task more difficult.
A resurgence in the global economy or supply interruptions from geopolitical events (i.e., Red Sea shipping issues) could certainly bolster oil prices. But fundamentally, the oil market looks adequately supplied (looser rather than tighter).
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