Leading Indicators Continue to Signal a Recession
A gauge of future economic activity declined in October, after falling in September, on worsening consumer expectations, the Conference Board reported on Monday.
A gauge of future economic activity declined in October, after falling in September, on worsening consumer expectations, the Conference Board reported on Monday. Its highly influential leading economic index fell 0.8% to 103.9, worse than expected. On a 6-month basis, the index is already down 3.3%, but with an improvement over the 4.5% decline in the prior 6-month period.
“The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October,” said Justyna Zabinska-LaMonica, senior manager, business cycle indicators at the board. “After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in the near term.”
“The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending – due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments – to tip the US economy into a very short recession. We forecast that real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent in 2024,” Zabinska-LaMonica added.
Fed Kept Interest Rates Flat Again — But Barely Budged on 2024 Rate Cut Forecasts
The Federal Reserve opted on Wednesday December 13 to hold interest rates at the same level they’ve sat since July
Wall Street Bank Bosses Warn Lawmakers of Economic Toll From Tough New Rules
The top bosses of JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and other major banks warned lawmakers Wednesday that capital hikes and other new regulations being contemplated by U.S. bank regulators will hurt lending, capital markets and the broader economy.
Bank of America, Deutsche Bank Predict Interest Rate Cuts in 2024
Bank of America (BOA) and Deutsche Bank (DB) both released outlooks Monday predicting the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts next year
